WMO pushes for robust early warning systems ahead of potential El Niño

As climate experts from across Africa gather in Zambia to assess the continent's preparedness for a possible El Niño event, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has called for stronger early warning systems capable of turning climate information into life-saving action.

Speaking at the 21st African Continental Climate Outlook Forum (ACCOF-21), held alongside the Continental Working Group and User Interface Programme Workshop, WMO Regional Director for Africa, Dr. Agnes Kijazi, said Africa must move beyond simply producing weather forecasts and ensure that climate information reaches communities in time to guide critical decisions.

"WMO is committed to strengthening end-to-end early warning systems that connect data, forecasts, communication, information and action, ensuring that climate information leads to timely and life-saving decisions on the ground," Dr. Kijazi said.

Her remarks come as climate projections point to a high probability of El Niño conditions strengthening during the latter half of the year and potentially extending into early 2027.

With millions of Africans depending on rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive livelihoods, the anticipated weather phenomenon could have significant implications for food security, water resources, public health and disaster management.

Dr. Kijazi stressed that WMO remains committed to providing technical support to member states to ensure meteorological and hydrological information is not only available but effectively used to protect lives and support economic development.

"We will continue to provide the required technical support as per our mandate to ensure hydrometeorological information is available, accessible and translated into action to save lives and support socio-economic development," she said.

She challenged participants attending the forum to focus on practical outcomes rather than technical discussions alone.

"The true measure of the success of this forum will be the extent to which climate information is translated into timely, meaningful action," she said.

The forum has brought together Regional Climate Centres, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, development partners, policymakers and climate experts to develop a coordinated response to emerging climate risks across the continent.

Dr. Kijazi thanked the Government of Zambia for hosting the gathering, describing it as an important platform for countries facing common climate challenges.

She noted that the African Union Commission has continued to invest in strengthening the capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Regional Climate Centres through forecasting systems, climate monitoring stations and specialized training programmes.

According to Dr. Kijazi, the meeting will enable stakeholders to assess projected El Niño impacts, harmonize regional outlooks and co-develop climate services tailored to vulnerable communities.

"Today's forum brings together WMO Regional Climate Centres and key stakeholders to assess the projected El Niño impacts, harmonize regional outlooks, share lessons and co-develop actionable climate services and early warnings tailored to vulnerable communities," she said.

She added that discussions during the forum would also support the establishment of the Continental User Working Group, aimed at strengthening collaboration among climate institutions, regional economic communities and users of climate information.

The WMO Regional Director also paid tribute to the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) for its contribution to strengthening climate services on the continent.

"I wish to commend ACMAD for its steadfast leadership and outstanding contribution to climate services across the continent," she said.

"Over the years, ACMAD has consistently delivered high-quality weather and climate information to its member states and has played a pivotal role in strengthening Africa's climate resilience architecture."

She said ACMAD has helped bridge the gap between climate science and decision-making by ensuring that weather and climate information remains relevant, accessible and actionable for governments, communities and climate-sensitive sectors.

Dr. Kijazi further recognized the role played by regional climate centres across Africa in delivering regional climate outlook forums that have contributed significantly to disaster risk reduction and socio-economic development.

She noted that these institutions are helping create harmonized, consensus-based climate outlooks that support informed decision-making and anticipatory action.

"Climate projections indicate a high chance of El Niño strengthening in the last half of this year and the possibility of its extension into early 2027, with a probability of above 80 percent," she said.

Against this backdrop, participants are expected to review the performance of the previous rainfall season, analyze climate drivers and develop sector-specific advisories to strengthen preparedness and response efforts.

Dr. Kijazi emphasized that climate services must evolve from simply providing information to enabling action through collaboration among all stakeholders.

"This aligns with WMO efforts in ensuring that climate services move beyond providing information to enable action," she said.

She added that the forum is expected to facilitate the translation of climate outlooks into practical guidance for key sectors while strengthening collaboration, knowledge exchange and trust across the continent.

Looking ahead, Dr. Kijazi outlined four priority areas where WMO is intensifying support: strengthening regional coordination and partnerships, expanding climate financing for adaptation, modernizing observational infrastructure and advancing early warning systems.

"Climate services cannot be delivered in isolation," she said, stressing the need for stronger partnerships among regional institutions, national meteorological services and development partners.

Through programmes such as the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems initiative, WMO is helping countries strengthen climate service delivery and improve preparedness in some of Africa's most vulnerable regions.

She further emphasized that reliable climate services depend on robust observation systems and quality data, adding that WMO is supporting investment in weather and climate monitoring infrastructure through the Systematic Observations Financing Facility.

As Africa faces growing climate uncertainties, the message emerging from the forum is clear: forecasts alone are not enough. The real challenge lies in ensuring that climate information reaches communities, governments and institutions in time to drive action and build resilience against future climate shocks.

Ends